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Forecasting the demand for international business tourism

Kulendran, Nada and Witt, Stephen F (2003) Forecasting the demand for international business tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 41 (3). pp. 265-271. ISSN 1552-6763 Online 0047-2875 Print

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Abstract

Previous research in the area of tourism demand modeling and forecasting has paid little attention to business tourism. This study provides the most comprehensive comparison to date of the accuracy of modern forecasting methods in the context of international business tourism demand forecasting. Seven forecasting models are examined, including the error correction model and various structural time-series and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The empirical results show that relative forecasting performance is highly dependent on the length of forecasting horizon, that adding explanatory variables to the structural time-series model does not improve forecasting performance, and that testing for unit roots is likely to yield reasonably accurate results under certain conditions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: tourism forecasting, business tourism, modern forecasting methods, accuracy comparisons
Subjects: Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
RFCD Classification > 340000 Economics
RFCD Classification > 350000 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Depositing User: Ms Phung T Tran
Date Deposited: 18 Feb 2009 16:19
Last Modified: 06 Jul 2011 01:53
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/1772
DOI: 10.1177/0047287502239034
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Citations in Scopus: 49 - View on Scopus

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