Leading indicator tourism forecasts
Kulendran, Nada and Witt, Stephen F (2003) Leading indicator tourism forecasts. Tourism Management, 24 (5). pp. 503-510. ISSN 0261-5177Full text for this resource is not available from the Research Repository.
Leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations, but only rarely in a tourism context. In this study leading indicator transfer function (TF) models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the UK to six major destinations. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate ARIMA and error correction models (ECMs). The inclusion of a causal input within an ARIMA time series framework (TF model) does not result in an improvement in forecasting performance. The time series models outperform the ECM for short-term forecasting, but the ECM generates more accurate longer-term forecasts.
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||leading indicator, transfer function, ARIMA model, error correction model, forecast accuracy|
|Subjects:||RFCD Classification > 340000 Economics
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
|Depositing User:||Ms Phung T Tran|
|Date Deposited:||18 Feb 2009 17:13|
|Last Modified:||05 Jul 2011 01:40|
|ePrint Statistics:||View download statistics for this item|
|Citations in Scopus:||34 - View on Scopus|
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