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Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios

Liddle, Brantley (2012) Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios. Energy Policy, 45. pp. 502-509. ISSN 0301-4215

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Abstract

This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity trends for OECD countries over 1960–2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy–GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Alternatively, the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s played a role in many of the countries that experienced inverted-V breaks. These findings have implications for future modeling and forecasting of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID25506, energy intensity, endogenous structural breaks, oil crises
Subjects: FOR Classification > 1403 Econometrics
FOR Classification > 1605 Policy and Administration
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
Depositing User: Yimin Zeng
Date Deposited: 23 Jul 2014 07:01
Last Modified: 10 Sep 2014 02:13
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/23434
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.061
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