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Forecasting the Economic Impact of an Industrial Stoppage Using a Dynamic, Computable General Equilibrium Model

Dixon, Peter and Wittwer, Glyn (2004) Forecasting the Economic Impact of an Industrial Stoppage Using a Dynamic, Computable General Equilibrium Model. Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 7 (1). pp. 39-51. ISSN 1328-1143

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates that dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulations can provide estimates of the economy-wide effects of industrial stoppages. Such estimates could be used in broad discussions of the contribution to economic welfare of improved industrial relations. They could also be used in narrowly focussed discussions, e.g. in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in a determination under the Workplace Relations Act of the economic damage associated with a specific stoppage. An attractive feature of CGE simulation is that it can capture relevant details of particular circumstances. We illustrate this with a CGE analysis of the effects of a hypothetical stoppage in the Victorian non-residential construction industry. As explained in the paper, our simulation results reflect explicit assumptions about the nature of the industry in which the stoppage occurs, the wage adjustment process and the state of the business cycle.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: industrial relations, strikes and lockouts, economic aspects, CGE simulations, econometric models
Subjects: FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > College of Business
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Ms Julie Gardner
Date Deposited: 30 May 2014 06:16
Last Modified: 05 Oct 2015 00:00
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/24627
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