Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA

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Dixon, Peter and Rimmer, Maureen T (2010) Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA. Economic Record, 86 (s1). pp. 22-34. ISSN 0013-0249 (print) 1475-4932 (online)

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries and thereby provide baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this article, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the USA and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate ‘genuine forecasts’ for 500 US commodities/industries for the period 1998–2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998.

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Item type	Article
URI	https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/24666
DOI	10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00656.x
Official URL	http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-...
Subjects	Historical > FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > College of Business Current > Division/Research > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Keywords	computable general equilibrium models, CGE forecasting method, USAGE forecasting method, macroeconomic models
Citations in Scopus	14 - View on Scopus
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