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Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA

Dixon, Peter and Rimmer, Maureen T (2010) Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA. Economic Record, 86 (s1). pp. 22-34. ISSN 0013-0249 (print) 1475-4932 (online)

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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries and thereby provide baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this article, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the USA and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate ‘genuine forecasts’ for 500 US commodities/industries for the period 1998–2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: computable general equilibrium models, CGE forecasting method, USAGE forecasting method, macroeconomic models
Subjects: Current > FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > College of Business
Current > Division/Research > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Depositing User: Ms Julie Gardner
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2014 02:16
Last Modified: 04 Oct 2015 23:54
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Citations in Scopus: 10 - View on Scopus

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