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The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment

Dixon, Peter, Giesecke, James A ORCID: 0000-0002-7283-0551, Rimmer, Maureen T and Rose, A (2009) The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment. Working Paper. Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS).

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Abstract

We investigate the economic consequences of a twelve-month closure of U.S. borders in the form of cessation of trade, tourism and immigration flows. The federal government might contemplate such action in the face of an extreme terrorism or public health threat. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we find that border closure would cause substantial economic loss. However this damage is significantly reduced when critical imports (such as energy) are either exempted from the policy, or made available through use of domestic stockpiles (such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Economic damage is reduced further if workers accept lower real wages for the duration of the security crisis. We argue that if border closure were ever to be contemplated as a response to a security or public health threat, it would be prudent to keep its scope to a minimum, to make its duration as short as possible, to allow market responses to run their course, and to enact countervailing policies that can help minimize the economic losses.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
ISBN: 0732615917
Additional Information:

CoPS/IMPACT Working Paper Number G-184

Uncontrolled Keywords: border closure; strategic reserves; bottleneck imports; dynamic CGE; F52; C68
Subjects: FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 01 Sep 2015 23:44
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2019 06:45
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/29401
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