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Reconciling anthropogenic climate change and variability on decadal  timescales: the challenge

Jones, Roger ORCID: 0000-0001-6970-2797 (2015) Reconciling anthropogenic climate change and variability on decadal  timescales: the challenge. Working Paper. VISES, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia.

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Abstract

Supporting papers exploring the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and variability on decadal timescales, conclude that gradually increasing radiative forcing interacts with internal variability, producing a series of nonlinear responses manifesting as shifts. For temperature, this produces a step‐ladder like progression under low external forcing that becomes escalator‐like under greater forcing. The dominant gradualist narrative of climate change, which communicated climate change as being a gradual process modulated by climate variability, is therefore considered to be obsolete. This paper summarises these findings and then goes on to explore their implications for methods of climate detection and attribution, prediction, adaptation, mitigation and communication. Currently, these methods depend heavily on linear methods based on least squares trend analysis, but if climate risks are to be characterised accurately, methods to detect climate shifts, to understand and attribute their causes, to characterise climate risks for adaptation and mitigation, and communicate these to the public, all need to be developed.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
ISBN: 9781862727243
Additional Information:

Commissioned by: VISES, Victoria University.
Climate Change Working Paper 36

Uncontrolled Keywords: decadal variability; climate change; regime change; nonlinear dynamics; detection and attribution; science communication; forecasting
Subjects: FOR Classification > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies (VISES)
Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited: 14 Mar 2018 00:35
Last Modified: 08 May 2019 05:57
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/35212
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