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Evaluating sources of uncertainty in Australian runoff projections

Preston, B and Jones, Roger N (2008) Evaluating sources of uncertainty in Australian runoff projections. Advances in Water Resources, 31 (5). pp. 758-775. ISSN 0309-1708

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Abstract

Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is confounded by cascading uncertainties which propagate through the impact assessment. Here, a simple stochastic rainfall–runoff model representing 238 river basins on the Australian continent was used to assess the sensitivity of the risk of runoff changes to various sources of uncertainty. Uncertainties included global mean temperature change, greenhouse gas stabilisation targets, catchment sensitivities to climatic change, and the seasonality of runoff, rainfall, and evaporation. Model simulations provided estimates of the first-order risk of climate change to Australian catchments, with several regions having high likelihoods of experiencing significant reductions in future runoff. Climate uncertainty (at global and regional scales) was identified as the dominant driving force in hydrological risk assessments. Uncertainties in catchment sensitivities to climatic changes also influenced risk, provided they were sufficiently large, whereas structural assumptions of the model were generally negligible. Collectively, these results indicate that rigorous assessment of climate risk to water resources over relatively long time-scales is largely a function of adequately exploring the uncertainty space of future climate changes.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID18602, climate change, runoff, water resources, risk, uncertainty
Subjects: FOR Classification > 0501 Ecological Applications
FOR Classification > 0502 Environmental Science and Management
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
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Depositing User: VUIR
Date Deposited: 14 Sep 2011 04:18
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2011 04:18
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/3896
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.01.006
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Citations in Scopus: 16 - View on Scopus

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