The new global growth path: Implications for climate change analysis and policy
Sheehan, Peter (2008) The new global growth path: Implications for climate change analysis and policy. Climatic Change, 91 (3-4). pp. 211-231. ISSN 0165-0009 (print) 1573-1480 (online)Full text for this resource is not available from the Research Repository.
In recent years the world has moved to a new path of rapid global growth, largely driven by the developing countries, which is energy intensive and heavily reliant on the use of coal—global coal use will rise by nearly 60% over the decade to 2010. It is likely that, without changes to the policies in place in 2006, global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion would nearly double their 2000 level by 2020 and would continue to rise beyond 2030. Neither the SRES marker scenarios nor the reference cases assembled in recent studies using integrated assessment models capture this abrupt shift to rapid growth based on fossil fuels, centred in key Asian countries. While policy changes must and will occur, the realism of the reference case is critical for analysis and policy formulation. Using such a reference path will have significant effects on impact and damage estimates, on the analysis of achievable stabilisation paths and on estimates of the costs of achieving stabilisation at a given GHG concentration level. Use of a realistic reference path is also essential for the international negotiations, arising out of the COP13 meeting in Bali, to achieve widely desired stabilisation goals: both the level of emission reductions to be achieved, and the preferred distribution of those reductions over countries and regions, will be heavily influenced by the reference case assumed.
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||ResPubID15493, climate change, energy use, chinese economy|
|Subjects:||Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
SEO Classification > 8598 Environmentally Sustainable Energy Activities
|Date Deposited:||15 Apr 2011 00:11|
|Last Modified:||25 Jul 2011 03:34|
|ePrint Statistics:||View download statistics for this item|
|Citations in Scopus:||21 - View on Scopus|
Repository staff only