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Modern sensitivity analysis of the CESARE-Risk computer fire model

Hasofer, Abraham (2009) Modern sensitivity analysis of the CESARE-Risk computer fire model. Fire Safety Journal, 44 (3). pp. 330-338. ISSN 0379-7112

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Abstract

This paper introduces two new modern methods of global sensitivity analysis for computer models: Fourier Amplitude and Sobol,as well as a modern factor screening method:the Morris method.The methods are applied to the sensitivity analysis of the apartment fire module of the CESARE-Risk building fire computer model with eight input factors and door and window open. Two output variables are considered: the maximum temperature reached and the time of onset of untenable conditions. Response surfaces previously derived for the model[Jianguo Qu,Response surface modelling of Monte Carlo fire data,Ph.D.Thesis,Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia, 2003, http://eprints.vu.edu.au/ archive/00000260/01/Qu,_Jianguo.pdf]are used to speed up the computations. For the maximum temperature all three methods agree that the most sensitive factors are the window height and width factors, followed by the fuel area factor. The largest interaction was between the length of room and the fuel area factor. For the time of untenable conditions the Fourier Amplitude and Sobol methods agreed that one factor,the flame spread rate, had overwhelming significance. The only significant Sobol interaction was between the width of room and the flame spread rate.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID19182. global sensitivity, variance decomposition, MORRIS screening method, Fourier Amplitude method, Sobol method, CESARE-Risk model, response surfaces, AVAS and ACE additive models
Subjects: RFCD Classification > 210000 Science-General
FOR Classification > 0203 Classical Physics
FOR Classification > 0301 Analytical Chemistry
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering (CESARE)
Depositing User: VUIR
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2011 04:27
Last Modified: 13 Oct 2011 04:27
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/4328
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Citations in Scopus: 5 - View on Scopus

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