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Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators

Kulendran, Nada and Wong, Kevin K. F (2009) Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators. Tourism Economics, 15 (2). pp. 307-322. ISSN 1354-8166

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Abstract

This study predicts numerical demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points in the growth rate using the single input leading indicator model and assesses its forecasting performance with the ARIMA model and the no-change model. To assess the forecasting performance from the March quarter of 2004 to the December quarter of 2006, models are fitted to the growth rates of Hong Kong inbound tourism demand from selected tourism markets (Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA). Composite leading indicators for the single input leading indicator model are constructed from selected national leading and lagged indicators. To avoid false signals in turning points, a method is specified to identify the correct turning points in tourism demand growth rates. The prediction performance of these models is then examined, based on the mean absolute percentage error, directional change error and turning point error. A statistical procedure is considered to determine whether the actual and predicted directional changes and turning points are independent or associated.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID17379, tourism forecasting, growth rate cycle, composite leading, indicator, error magnitude measure, turning point error, directional change error
Subjects: Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
FOR Classification > 1403 Econometrics
SEO Classification > 9003 Tourism
Depositing User: VUIR
Date Deposited: 03 May 2012 23:47
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2015 03:28
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/4396
DOI: 10.5367/000000009788254340
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Citations in Scopus: 3 - View on Scopus

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