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The Global Financial Crisis, Economic Integration and China's Exports: A Casual and Predictive Analysis

Tran, Van Hoa and Tang, Z (2010) The Global Financial Crisis, Economic Integration and China's Exports: A Casual and Predictive Analysis. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 2 (1). pp. 3-26. ISSN 2008-448X

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Abstract

Recent strong growth of China's exports has elevated the country to a rising global economic power and caused geo-political concern to policy-makers in the country and its trading partners world-wide. What are the determinants of this growth, how has it affected major economies in ASEAN (World Bank, 2009) in particular, and what kind of evidence-based responses are required and appropriate? The paper focuses on the first issue and introduces an endogenous trade model (ETM) and, using historical data, empirically investigates the causes of China's exports in recent years for regional trade policy analysis. The ETM (see Tran Van Hoa, 2004, 2008a for earlier applications) is a system approach and contains improved structural and modelling features, in comparison to conventional gravity theory, panel regression and CGE/GTAP, to provide more credible outcomes and policy options in the sense of Friedman (1953) and Kydland (2006). Significantly, the ETM also incorporates multiple structural changes in the form of crises and policy reforms to accommodate and manage recent economic and financial developments in regional and global economies. Policy options and choice recommendations are, finally, suggested for debate and analysis.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID20527, China’s exports, econometric modelling, structural change, exchange rates, world demand, global financial crises, policy reform, econometric forecasts, trade policy
Subjects: Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
SEO Classification > 9101 Macroeconomics
Related URLs:
Depositing User: VUIR
Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2012 03:14
Last Modified: 18 Jun 2012 05:02
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/7294
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