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Long-run Projections of Environmental Impact in the OECD: The Importance of Uncertainty and Age Structure

Liddle, Brantley (2011) Long-run Projections of Environmental Impact in the OECD: The Importance of Uncertainty and Age Structure. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 11 (3/4). pp. 200-217. ISSN 1466-6650

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Abstract

This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population - total and age structure - on long-run environmental impact projections. A simple model, based on the stochastic version of the IPAT equation, is used to generate projections of two environmental impacts for which population has a demonstrated influence - carbon emissions from transport and residential electricity consumption. The paper examines the sensitivity of those long-run projections to uncertainty regarding possible future GDP and population growth/change

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ResPubID24431, STIRPAT, stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology, demography and environmental impact, age structure and environment, population and sustainable development, greenhouse gas emissions projections, uncertainty and projections, sensitivity analysis, factorial experimental designs
Subjects: FOR Classification > 0502 Environmental Science and Management
FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
SEO Classification > 970114 Expanding Knowledge in Economics
Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: VUIR
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2012 00:30
Last Modified: 27 Sep 2012 00:30
URI: http://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/9447
DOI: 10.1504/IJGENVI.2011.044551
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Citations in Scopus: 0 - View on Scopus

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