Tran, Van Hoa (2009) Impact of Oil, Crises and Economic Integration on Growth: A Causal Analysis of Major East-West Asia Economies. International Economics Studies, 34 (1). pp. 7-18. ISSN 2008-9643

Abstract

While energy especially oil, crises and economic integration have been playing an important role in development and growth in East West Asia economies and their intertwining relations, only limited quantitative research on their impact has been carried out and reported for improved debate and credible policy use. This paper uses an econometric modeling innovation with features superior to existing methodologies, namely the generalized or endogenous gravity theory (eg, Tran Van Hoa, 2004), to provide rigorous substantive evidence satisfying Kydland (2006) data-model consistency criterion to this impact study for reliable regional policy analysis. The paper first analyses the major economic and trade patterns between the Gulf States and Asian NIEs over the past three decades for relevant historical correlative support. Second, a new endogenous growth model for these economies is constructed and estimated to provide substantive causal evidence on the impact. Implications of the findings for economic and trade policy development between the Gulf States and Asian NIEs are then discussed for possible uses by academic, business and government decision-makers.

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