Jones, Roger ORCID: 0000-0001-6970-2797 and Preston, Benjamin (2010) Adaptation and Risk Management. Working Paper. Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia.

Abstract

Assessment methods for adaptation to climate change are very compatible with environmental risk assessment frameworks. Risk assessment approaches are increasingly being recommended for assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottomup, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments that can be related to uncertainties in both prediction and taking action, and in the type of adaptation and degree of system stress. Taking multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. A broad range of material from within and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select subsequent methods. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The re-orientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, development and managing disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions, and agencies, and to their existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

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