Fernando, Emmanuel (2010) Identifying and predicting turning points in Australian inbound tourism demand growth. PhD thesis, Victoria University.

Abstract

This study identifies the importance of forecasting turning points in tourism demand. Recognising the limitations of the current linear models in use, and the lack of adequate research in turning point prediction in tourism, the objective of this study is to forecast turning points in tourism demand accurately by applying nonlinear models such as Logit, Probit and Markov Switching and the Leading Indicator approach. The specific aim of this study is to forecast turning points in Australian inbound tourism demand growth caused by ‘economic factors’ within both the tourism generating country and destination country (Australia). This objective of this study is achieved by establishing that Logit and Probit models can be used effectively in turning point forecasting of tourism demand.

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