Forecasting international regional tourist arrivals to China

Zhou-Grundy, Yvonne (2011) Forecasting international regional tourist arrivals to China. PhD thesis, Victoria University.


This study develops models to forecast international arrivals to regional China, using time series as well as causal explanatory methods. The nine quantitative forecast methods applied in this study are Holt, Exponential Smoothing, Naïve, ARMA, Neural, and Basic Structural Model (BSM) with and without intervention, and the causal explanatory forecast models are the Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) with and without dummy variables. This research has demonstrated a pressing need for advancing and expanding, international tourism forecasting from the current national based approach, to include regional forecasting.

Item type Thesis (PhD thesis)
Subjects Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Faculty of Business and Law
Historical > FOR Classification > 1506 Tourism
Keywords international tourists, international tourism, international arrivals, tourist forecasting, tourism forecasting, international tourism forecasting, tourism industry, forecast analysis, forecasting models, China, Chinese, regional
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