Leading indicator tourism forecasts

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Kulendran, Nada and Witt, Stephen F (2003) Leading indicator tourism forecasts. Tourism Management, 24 (5). pp. 503-510. ISSN 0261-5177


Leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations, but only rarely in a tourism context. In this study leading indicator transfer function (TF) models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the UK to six major destinations. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate ARIMA and error correction models (ECMs). The inclusion of a causal input within an ARIMA time series framework (TF model) does not result in an improvement in forecasting performance. The time series models outperform the ECM for short-term forecasting, but the ECM generates more accurate longer-term forecasts.

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Item type Article
URI https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/1774
DOI 10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00010-4
Official URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00010-4
Subjects Historical > RFCD Classification > 340000 Economics
Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
Keywords leading indicator, transfer function, ARIMA model, error correction model, forecast accuracy
Citations in Scopus 64 - View on Scopus
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