O'Neill, Brian C, Liddle, Brantley, Jiang, Leiwen, Smith, Kirk R, Pachauri, Shonali, Dalton, Michael and Fuchs, Regina (2012) Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions. The Lancet, 380 (9837). pp. 157-164. ISSN 0140-6736

Abstract

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO2 emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO2 several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.

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