Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios

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Liddle, Brantley (2012) Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios. Energy Policy, 45. pp. 502-509. ISSN 0301-4215


This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity trends for OECD countries over 1960–2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy–GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Alternatively, the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s played a role in many of the countries that experienced inverted-V breaks. These findings have implications for future modeling and forecasting of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.

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Item type Article
DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.061
Official URL
Subjects Historical > FOR Classification > 1403 Econometrics
Historical > FOR Classification > 1605 Policy and Administration
Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES)
Keywords ResPubID25506, energy intensity, endogenous structural breaks, oil crises
Citations in Scopus 15 - View on Scopus
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