Adams, Philip (2005) Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27 (8). pp. 941-959. ISSN 0161-8938

Abstract

Interpretation of results from a CGE model like GTAP is not easy. The objective of this paper is to outline a general strategy, which is always available as a starting point, and is often suggestive of more detailed, simulation-specific interpretations. The strategy focuses first on macroeconomic variables, then on structural variables such as industry output. At the core of our general strategy is a model of the model. Stylised models assist in identifying the principal theoretical mechanisms that underlie the projections from the full model. In the penultimate section of the paper, the power of the general strategy is demonstrated with an application to a GTAP simulation of the effects of trade liberalisation.

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