Tariq, Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman ORCID: 0000-0002-0226-7310, Muttil, Nitin ORCID: 0000-0001-7758-8365, Rajabi, Zohreh, Hussein, Maha ORCID: 0000-0003-0879-5533, Shah, Muhammad Izhar ORCID: 0000-0002-0588-6301, Ur, Muhammad Laiq ORCID: 0000-0002-5223-4744, Shahid, Rahman, Janjua, Shahana, Farooq, Rashid ORCID: 0000-0002-4763-7645 and Ng, Anne ORCID: 0000-0002-7698-9068 (2021) Development of a Hydrodynamic-Based Flood-Risk Management Tool for Assessing Redistribution of Expected Annual Damages in a Floodplain. Water, 13 (24). ISSN 2073-4441

Abstract

Despite spending ample resources and procedural development in flood management, flood losses are still increasing worldwide. The losses caused by floods and costs incurred on management are two components of expected annual damages (EAD) due to floods. This study introduces a generalized approach for risk-based design where a range of probable floods are considered before and after a flood mitigation measure is implemented. The proposed approach is customized from the ISO Guide 31000 along with additional advantages of flood risk visualization. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based design of a flood-protection dike is performed to exhibit the risk redistribution. The Chenab River is selected for the existing dike system. Detailed hazard behaviour and societal vulnerability are modelled and visualized for a range of all probable floods before and after the implementation of flood-protection dikes. EAD maps demonstrate the redistribution of induced and residual risks. It can be concluded that GIS-based EAD maps not only facilitate cost-effective solutions but also provide an accurate estimate of residual risks after the mitigation measures are applied. EAD maps also indicate the high-risk areas to facilitate designing secondary measures.

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