Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates

[thumbnail of fire-07-00113-v2.pdf]
fire-07-00113-v2.pdf - Published Version (1MB) | Preview
Available under license: Creative Commons Attribution

Jones, Roger ORCID: 0000-0001-6970-2797 and Ricketts, James ORCID: 0000-0003-0608-5618 (2024) Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates. Fire, 7 (4). ISSN 2571-6255


The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk

Dimensions Badge

Altmetric Badge

Item type Article
DOI 10.3390/fire7040113
Official URL
Subjects Current > FOR (2020) Classification > 3702 Climate change science
Current > Division/Research > Institute for Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities
Keywords fire climate regimes, Australia, McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index, FFDI
Download/View statistics View download statistics for this item

Search Google Scholar

Repository staff login