Comparing Univariate Forecasting Techniques Using Tourism Data to and from Japan

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Fernando, Hubert Preman and Turner, Lindsay W (2004) Comparing Univariate Forecasting Techniques Using Tourism Data to and from Japan. In: APTA 2004 : Globalisation and tourism research : east meets west : Proceedings of the 10th Asia Pacific Tourism Association Annual Conference 2004. Chon, K, Hsu, C. H. C and Okamoto, N, eds. Asia Pacific Tourism Association Conference . Asia Pacific Tourism Association, Nagasaki, Japan , pp. 230-235.


This paper compares the neural network model, the autoregressive integrated moving average model, the basic structural model and the naïve model in forecasting tourist arrivals to Japan from Australia, Korea and USA. Univariate forecasts are made for total tourism flows to Japan. The criterion for comparison of the models is forecasting accuracy during an out of sample period of 36 months. The multilayer perceptron neural network model using a connectionist network outperformed other forecasting models in most cases and was consistent in short, medium and long term forecasting.

Additional Information

Book title variation: Proceedings of Asia Pacific Tourism Association Tenth Annual Conference

Item type Book Section
ISBN 4990203402
Subjects Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
Historical > FOR Classification > 1401 Economic Theory
Historical > FOR Classification > 1506 Tourism
Keywords ResPubID7080, tourism, forecasting
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