Combining player statistics to predict outcomes of tennis matches

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Barnett, Tristan and Clarke, S (2005) Combining player statistics to predict outcomes of tennis matches. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16 (2). pp. 113-120. ISSN 1471-678X


With the growth in sports betting, it is possible to bet, both before and during a match, on a range of outcomes in tennis. This paper shows how the standard statistics published by the ATP can be combined to predict the serving statistics to be obtained when two given players meet. These statistics are then used in a spreadsheet model to predict further match outcomes, such as the length of the match and chance of either player winning. These calculations can be updated as the match progresses. The method is demonstrated by focusing on a very long men’s singles match between Roddick and El Aynaoui played at the 2003 Australian Open.

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Additional Information

Online ISSN: 1471-6798

Item type Article
DOI 10.1093/imaman/dpi001
Official URL
Subjects Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Management and Information Systems
Historical > FOR Classification > 0104 Statistics
Keywords ResPubID19466. tennis matches, player statistics, Australian Open, scoring systems, Excel, gambling, sports betting, serving statistics
Citations in Scopus 37 - View on Scopus
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