Do External Shocks Have a Permanent or a Transitory Effect on Thailand’s Tourism Industry?

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Saleh, Ali Salman, Verma, Reetu and Ihalanayake, Ranjith ORCID: 0000-0002-5407-203X (2011) Do External Shocks Have a Permanent or a Transitory Effect on Thailand’s Tourism Industry? Tourism Analysis, 16 (4). pp. 483-491. ISSN 1083-5423 (print) 1943-3999 (online)


Given the number and the frequency of external shocks encountered by Thailand in the last two decades, this study identifies the number and the location of the breaks and tests to determine whether the breaks have a transitory or a permanent effect on international tourist arrivals to Thailand for its top 10 source countries using both univariate and panel unit root tests with structural breaks. The findings suggest that break dates coincide with the Asian financial crisis, the September 11 attack, and the SARS and the bird flu outbreaks. The univariate unit root tests with structural breaks reject the null hypothesis of a nonstationarity in tourist arrivals from all countries. Furthermore, panel unit root tests with one and two structural breaks also reject the joint null hypothesis of a nonstationarity. These findings imply that external shocks have only a transitory effect on tourist arrivals and Thailand's tourism sector will return to its long-run equilibrium path.

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Item type Article
DOI 10.3727/108354211X13149079789098
Official URL
Subjects Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > School of Economics and Finance
Historical > FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Historical > FOR Classification > 1506 Tourism
Historical > SEO Classification > 9199 Other Economic Framework
Keywords ResPubID24275, external shocks, tourism, unit root hypothesis, Thailand
Citations in Scopus 14 - View on Scopus
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