Neuro-Fuzzy Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals

422 634 15909 1 2150098 document 15909 Fernando PhD.pdf application/pdf b2f277d9eeb959ecbbcac8a50d0febf1 MD5 3657674 2015-05-19 06:12:51 https://vuir.vu.edu.au/422/3/Fernando%20PhD.pdf 422 3 3 application/pdf text en public

Fernando PhD.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/dark_document/64417 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/dark_document/64417 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/dark_document/64417 archive 34 disk0/00/00/04/22 2006-05-05 2021-08-27 07:39:38 2008-08-19 20:33:17 thesis show Fernando Hubert Preman Fernando, Hubert Preman Neuro-Fuzzy Forecasting of Tourist Arrivals unpub AppliedEconomics 350000 forecasting tourist arrivals; Japan; multi-layer perceptron This study develops a model to forecast inbound tourism to Japan, using a combination of artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic and compares the performance of this forecasting model with forecasts from other quantitative forecasting methods namely, the multi-layer perceptron neural network model, the error correction model, the basic structural model, the autoregressive integrated moving average model and the naive model. Japan was chosen as the country of study mainly due to the availability of reliable tourism data, and also because it is a popular travel destination for both business and pleasure. Visitor arrivals from the 10 most popular tourist source countries to Japan, and total arrivals from all countries were used to incorporate a fairly wide variety of data patterns in the testing process. This research has established that neuro-fuzzy models can be used effectively in tourism forecasting, having made adequate comparisons with other time series and econometric models using real data. This research takes tourism forecasting a major leap forward to an entirely new approach in time series pedagogy. As previous tourism studies have not used hybrid combinations of neural and fuzzy logic in tourism forecasting this research has only touched the surface of a field that has immense potential not only in tourism forecasting but also in financial time series analysis, market research and business analysis. 2005 published 64417 2 2401271 dark_document 64417 Fernando, Hubert.pdf application/pdf bf6d451519b21a878e720ad88da79173 MD5 38995 2020-09-22 04:17:18 422 5 5 application/pdf text VURR permission form en staffonly

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other public 490 Victoria University School of Applied Economics phd phd FALSE