Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

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Dixon, Peter, Lee, Bumsoo, Muehlenbeck, Todd, Rimmer, Maureen T, Rose, Adam and Verikios, George (2010) Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 7 (1). ISSN 1547-7355

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

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Item type Article
URI https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/24672
DOI https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1769
Official URL http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.2010.7.1/jhs...
Subjects Current > FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics
Current > FOR Classification > 1605 Policy and Administration
Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > College of Business
Current > Division/Research > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Keywords influenza epidemic, quarterly CGE model
Citations in Scopus 35 - View on Scopus
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