Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

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Dixon, Peter, Lee, Bumsoo, Muehlenbeck, Todd, Rimmer, Maureen T, Rose, Adam and Verikios, George (2010) Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 7 (1). ISSN 1547-7355

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

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Item type	Article
URI	https://vuir.vu.edu.au/id/eprint/24672
DOI	10.2202/1547-7355.1769
Official URL	http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.2010.7.1/jhs...
Subjects	Historical > FOR Classification > 1402 Applied Economics Historical > FOR Classification > 1605 Policy and Administration Historical > Faculty/School/Research Centre/Department > College of Business Current > Division/Research > Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Keywords	influenza epidemic, quarterly CGE model
Citations in Scopus	60 - View on Scopus
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