Climate Change and Soil Dynamics: A Crop Modelling Approach

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Wimalasiri, Eranga M ORCID: 0000-0002-2527-7650, Sirishantha, Deshani, Karunadhipathi, U. L, Ampitiyawatta, Asanga D ORCID: 0000-0001-6319-8198, Muttil, Nitin ORCID: 0000-0001-7758-8365 and Rathnayake, Upaka ORCID: 0000-0002-7341-9078 (2023) Climate Change and Soil Dynamics: A Crop Modelling Approach. Soil Systems, 7 (4). ISSN 2571-8789


The impact of global climate change is a challenge to the sustainability of many ecosystems, including soil systems. However, the performance of soil properties under future climate was rarely assessed. Therefore, this study was carried out to evaluate selected soil processes under climate change using an agri-environmental modeling approach to Sri Lanka. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to simulate soil and plant-related processes using recent past (1990–2019) and future (2041–2070) climates. Future climate data were obtained for a regional climate model (RCM) under representative concentrations pathway 4.5 scenarios. Rainfalls are going to be decreased in all the tested locations under future climate scenarios while the maximum temperature showcased rises. According to simulated results, the average yield reduction under climate change was 7.4%. The simulated nitrogen content in the storage organs of paddy declined in the locations (by 6.4–25.5%) as a reason for climate change. In general, extractable soil water relative to the permanent wilting point (total available water), infiltration, and biomass carbon lost to the atmosphere decreased while soil temperature increased in the future climate. This modeling approach provides a primary-level prediction of soil dynamics under climate change, which needs to be tested using fieldwork.

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Item type Article
DOI 10.3390/soilsystems7040082
Official URL
Subjects Current > FOR (2020) Classification > 4005 Civil engineering
Current > Division/Research > College of Science and Engineering
Current > Division/Research > Institute for Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities
Keywords soil dynamics, global climate, climate change, Sri Lanka, ecosystem, simulation
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