Ranjbaran, Mina (2025) Predictive Modelling of Energy Consumption in Melbourne by Using Energy Simulations and Passive Design Approaches in Residential Buildings. PhD thesis, Victoria University.

Abstract

Due to the exponential increase in energy consumption within the residential building sector worldwide, there is a recognized need for targeted mechanisms to predict and optimize energy consumption in residential buildings. Accordingly, this research defines and investigates a predictive energy consumption model and optimizes geometric parameters of single-story residential buildings in Melbourne through energy performance simulation within a Performative Computational Architecture (PCA) framework. The main method of this research adopts a quantitative approach, involving coding based on the geometric parameters of residential buildings, simulation, modelling, and optimization within the Grasshopper programming environment in Rhino software. The study model focuses on common single-story residential buildings in Melbourne. Finally, based on linear and nonlinear regression testing, a predictive model for energy consumption, heating demand, and cooling demand of single-story residential buildings in Melbourne. is presented in six equations. Based on the findings, among architectural variables, building volume and area have the highest correlation with energy performance and are considered the most important architectural variables. Also, based on the findings, nonlinear models have a better fit and predict more than 97% of energy consumption changes of the single-story residential buildings in Melbourne based on the overall geometric characteristics of the building with a confidence factor of over 95%. Also, based on the findings, it is concluded that the square shape is the best plan shape for the single-story residential building in terms of energy performance. In addition, based on the findings, energy consumption per square meter decreases as the floor area increases and the height of the space decreases. It is concluded that the geometric characteristics of residential buildings influence building energy consumption by up to 34%. This could have a significant impact on global energy consumption. This highlights the need to consider the impact of geometric parameters in the development of urban planning and architectural regulations in Melbourne.

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