Lam, Tri-Dung (2009) Trade and economic growth in Vietnam after Doi-Moi : a comparative study with the ASEAN-4. PhD thesis, Victoria University.

Abstract

This thesis studies the role of exports in Vietnam's rapid growth since the country implemented a comprehensive reform (Doi-Moi) in 1986 to transform itself from a centrally command system to a 'socialist-oriented market economy'. One central finding is that Vietnam's growth since Doi-Moi has indeed been export-led as the second-tier NICs of Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, but that many of the characteristics of Vietnam's exports are different to those of these NICs. Vietnam's exports are focused on resource-intensive and low-tech industries, which are growing slowly in world trade, and in a constant market share model are explained by rising residual competitiveness rather than by market demand or commodity composition effects. This rising residual competitiveness stands at odds with the results of the World Economic Forum and other sources that Vietnam's competitiveness is low and falling in recent years. Another key finding is that since 2000 Vietnam's growth has been extensive rather than intensive, with labour productivity both at low levels and growing slowly outside the agricultural sector. High GDP growth since 2000 has been driven by rapid growth in factor supplies, especially labour, with low growth in nonagricultural productivity. This extensive pattern of growth resolves the competitiveness paradox, as it suggests that Vietnam is expanding low-cost industries rapidly but not building its competitiveness in other areas. Such a development path will not support the rate of long-term growth that Vietnam requires to achieve its development objectives, and major policy changes are necessary.

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