Moazzem, Shamima, Bhuiyan, Muhammed, Muthukumaran, Shobha ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2660-8060, Fagan, Jill and Jegatheesan, Veeriah (2026) Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on the stormwater quality in the Maribyrnong catchment, Australia. Frontiers in Sustainability, 7. ISSN 2673-4524

Abstract

Rapid urban development in the Maribyrnong catchment, Australia, has transformed natural landscapes, replacing wetlands and forests with built-up areas. This shift has increased impervious surfaces, leading to higher pollutant loads and degraded water quality in receiving waterways. This study evaluates the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stormwater quality in the 1,580 km Maribyrnong catchment, traversed by Victoria’s second-largest river. The research integrates statistical, and hydrological analyses through four phases. First, land use changes from 1985 to 2019 were quantified using GIS software. Second, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified correlations between land use types and water quality indicators—total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). Third, the eWater SOURCE model simulated stormwater discharge and pollutant load under varying land use and climate scenarios. Finally, the eWater MUSIC model assessed the effectiveness of constructed wetlands as a nature-based solution (NBS) for improving stormwater quality. Results show that urbanization increased surface runoff and pollutant concentrations, particularly TN and TP, while wetlands and native vegetation reduced these impacts. Constructed wetlands occupying 0.3–3.5% of the developed area reduced TSS by up to 93%, TN by 68%, and TP by 65%. This study presents a novel integrated multi-model approach, combining PCA, eWater SOURCE, and MUSIC, to link land use, water quality, and stormwater management. It provides the first comprehensive catchment-scale assessment of the Maribyrnong system under progressive urbanization (10–30%) and future climate scenarios. Findings demonstrate the significant role of NBS in mitigating urban water pollution and highlight the need for integrated, climate-responsive urban water management to enhance catchment resilience and sustainability.

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