Srikanthan, R, Chiew, Francis H S, Harrold, T. I, Siriwardena, L and Jones, Roger ORCID: 0000-0001-6970-2797 (2003) Simulation of climate change impact on runoff using rainfall scenarios that consider daily patterns of change from GCMs. In: MODSIM 2003: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Proceedings. Post, David A, ed. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Canberra, pp. 154-159.

Abstract

This paper compares runoff simulations for historical rainfall (1901-1998) and “2021-2050” climate conditions for six catchments in Australia. Runoff is simulated using the conceptual daily rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD, and climate change impacted rainfall for 2021-2050 is estimated from the CSIRO Mark 2 GCM simulations. The 2021-2050 rainfall is estimated using a scaling method that considers daily patterns of change simulated by the GCM. The results show a decrease in mean annual rainfall and runoff in eastern and south-west Australia, but an increase in the extreme daily rainfall, in 2021-2050 relative to 1961-1990. The results also indicate that climate change impact simulations from scenarios derived using the daily scaling method are more realistic than simulations using scenarios derived by scaling the historical rainfall by monthly average GCM changes. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation Integrative Modelling of Biophysical, Social, and Economic Systems for Resource Management Solutions Jupiters Hotel and Casino, Townsville, Australia 14-17 July 2003

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